The waters have returned to near normal in the central Pacific Ocean
in August after being colder than normal this past winter. Computer
models indicate that the water should start to warm some this month.
However, thereafter the models are at odds on just how strong this
warming is going to be and whether it will be a weak or moderate event
for winter 2012-2013. Remembering that warmer than normal waters in the
Pacific support a southern storm track through North America.
The
long-range forecast issued by the Climate Center of the National
Weather Service for winter 2012-2013 (Dec-Feb) call for near normal for
both precipitation and temperatures for Utah and southwest Colorado (see
graphics).
A caveat to all of this is long-range weather forecasts are somewhat
more accurate than in the past. The forecast for the upcoming winter is
based on climatology of with this event in the past.
An update on the progress of this El Nino will be blogged the first part of October.
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php
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